[CCTV Review] Is the property market regulation offering a ＂king-fried＂ house price really going down？

　　CCTV News:It is not an exaggeration to say that the present is the most stringent regulation period of the property market in history. Since September 30 last year, a round of property market regulation was launched nationwide, more than 45 cities have introduced various real estate regulation policies for more than 140 times.

　　Recently, there have been new changes in the policy, such as the big kill after restricting purchases and loans — — The "restricted sale" is coming.On March 25th, Xiamen issued a "restricted sale" policy for commercial housing, marking the start of the regulation of the "supply side" property market. As of the 14th, more than 10 cities have issued "sales restriction orders" for real estate, saying "no" to "take the house and sell it".

　　"T+N" years of sales cut off the liquidity of the property market

　　The "T+N" annual trading system sets the transfer period of the purchased commodity housing, that is, after the normal transaction of the house, it is stipulated that the buyer can make the second transaction only a few years later.

　　Start the restricted sales area (incomplete statistics)

　　Xiamen: Newly-purchased houses can only be listed and traded 2 years after obtaining the title certificate.

　　Chengdu: Housing purchased by high-end talents shall not be listed for transfer within 5 years.

　　Fuzhou: If the newly acquired title certificate of immovable property is less than 2 years old, it shall not be listed and traded, and shall not go through the formalities of notarization of transfer.

　　Qingdao: The house can only be listed and traded for 2 years after obtaining the real estate certificate.

　　Guangzhou: Newly purchased houses can only be transferred after they have obtained the real estate certificate for 2 years.

　　Changle (Fujian): Those who have obtained the real estate certificate for less than two years may not be listed and traded.

　　Changzhou: New houses can only be listed and traded after 2 years.

　　Huizhou: Newly purchased commercial housing can only be transferred after 3 years.

　　Zhuhai: The transfer of newly purchased houses is prohibited within 3 years.

　　Dongguan: upgrade the purchase restriction, and you can only trade for 2 years.

　　Yangzhou: Property rights cannot be traded for less than two years.

　　Hangzhou: It takes 3 years for enterprises to buy regional housing before they can be listed and traded.

　　Hainan province: new houses can only be transferred after obtaining the title certificate of immovable property for two years.

　　Restricted sales can greatly curb real estate speculation, which is regarded as a vicious move to "cut off the liquidity of the property market". At present, the property market also presents a new regulation feature of "city circle+housing loan+sales restriction":

　　Completely block real estate speculation in the form of "city circle" and urban agglomeration.

　　For example, in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and other regions, in addition to the regulation and upgrading of central cities, more than ten surrounding cities (counties and districts) have also released and upgraded the purchase restriction. This is equivalent to building walls around hot cities and closing real estate speculators.

　　Resume the recognition of housing and loan

　　First-and second-tier cities have fully resumed the credit policy of "recognizing houses and loans", taking away the financial leverage of real estate speculators and preventing and controlling financial risks.

　　How to understand the new trend of property market regulation policy? What role does it play in cracking down on real estate speculators? What is the future direction of the property market?

　　For the real estate market, this spring is far from quiet, but there has been too much noise.

　　First, the housing prices in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities set off another wave of price increases during the Spring Festival, followed by the introduction of various regulatory policies, which threw out a "king bomb" every once in a while, trying to cool down the market that has a tendency to bubble.

　　Regulating and playing the latest combination boxing to cool down the property market in an all-round way

　　The vane of real estate policy in central cities, the new attempts to tighten the real estate market introduced by central cities since March mean that other regions will follow suit, so we can see that in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and other regions,In addition to the regulation and upgrading of central cities, the purchase restrictions of more than ten hot cities around are also upgrading.This kind of linkage measures can reduce the "overflow funds" caused by purchase restriction and make waves in other markets.

　　Among a series of regulatory policies, raising the mortgage interest rate will have the most significant impact on the real estate market.This measure to reduce the leverage of buying a house takes into account the housing needs of those who just need it and low-income people, and is an objective requirement to truly realize the attribute that "the house is for living, not for speculation".In addition, as the general trend of money supply growth changes, the financial driving force behind the criticized housing prices will also weaken.

　　The policy of restricting purchases and sales can make the housing in central cities and hot cities return to the essence of living.However, it is worth noting that the dual trend of the national real estate market is becoming more and more obvious. While the first-and second-tier cities are experiencing the test of "panic buying", the housing market in some third-and fourth-tier cities is dragged down by the unsold housing stock that can only be digested for many years.

　　The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development defines the relationship between real estate inventory digestion cycle and land supply.

　　In this case, it is particularly important to adjust policies according to local conditions and urban policies, and besides making a fuss about demand, measures on the supply side are gradually keeping up.It can be seen that the new policy of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has made a breakthrough in this respect, that is, cities with a housing inventory digestion cycle of more than three years should stop land supply, while cities with a housing inventory digestion cycle of less than one year should increase land supply.The significance of this policy is to form a flexible and sustainable supply under the reasonable land development plan to disintegrate the speculative psychology and panic in the market.

　　In the real estate market, there is no bubble that can only be blown but not broken. Recently, regulatory policies have emerged one after another.Let the market realize that the "ammunition" in the government’s "regulation ammunition depot" is still sufficient.And the determination of this round of regulation is also great, which can effectively shock real estate speculators. All parties are looking forward to it, but the real estate market will have a quiet summer after a restless spring.