Report to the 20th CPC National Congress： How will the real estate industry develop in the next five years？
Reporter Fan Xu
Report to the 20th CPC National Congress, the Communist Party of China (CPC), proposed to adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and accelerate the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase.
Analysts believe that, following the 19th National Congress, Report to the 20th CPC National Congress once again emphasized "housing and not speculating", demonstrating the policy determination, which also means that "housing and not speculating" will become the long-term policy orientation of the real estate industry in China.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, pointed out that in the report of the 19th National Congress, the housing system reform was discussed under the framework of "improving the security and people’s livelihood", while this time Report to the 20th CPC National Congress was carried out under the framework of "improving people’s livelihood and improving people’s quality of life".
"In this contrast, it can be seen that on the basis of protecting people’s livelihood, improving quality will become an important content. In other words, the housing system reform should take into account the dual goals of protecting people’s livelihood and improving quality. " He said.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Urban Planning Institute, said that the construction of the "rent-and-purchase" housing system in the next five years is expected to accelerate in an all-round way. Looking at it now, the two have not been simultaneously developed, and the situation of "buying" and "renting" is still light. After the 20th National Congress, the pain points of upper and lower administrative management will be opened, the financial and asset attributes of housing will be weakened in an all-round way, and the people’s livelihood attributes will be highlighted in an all-round way. In addition, all localities will actively compete for population, and the new system of rent and purchase will make great progress.
The following are some analysts’ views on interface news collation.
China Index Academy: Next, the foothold of real estate development will focus more on protecting people’s livelihood and improving quality.
As early as the end of 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference first proposed to adhere to the positioning of "houses are used for living, not for speculation". In October 2017, "houses are not used for speculation" was written into the report of the 19th National Congress. In the past few years, although the real estate industry has experienced ups and downs, the central government has supported all localities to optimize the property market regulation policies due to urban policies, and "houses are not used for speculation" has always been the policy to stick to the bottom line. This time, Report to the 20th CPC National Congress once again emphasized that "the house is used for living, not for speculation", which showed the policy determination. At the same time, it also meant that "living without speculation" would become the long-term orientation of the real estate industry in China, and then the foothold of real estate development would focus more on protecting people’s livelihood and improving quality.
At the same time, we should also see that in the process of realizing all people’s housing, "enhancing people’s livelihood and improving people’s quality of life" will become the focus of policy. In the future, reasonable housing demand will still be the main object of policy support and encouragement. There is still room for the release of rigid and improved housing demand, especially for people’s better life, and improved housing demand will become the key support of the market.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Urban Planning Institute: In the next five years, the housing system construction of "rent and purchase simultaneously" will be accelerated in an all-round way.
The top-level thinking of housing work in the new era is very clear, that is, "no speculation in housing" and "simultaneous rent and purchase". The former is the top-level guidance for the whole country to carry out industry and market management, innovate management mode and long-term mechanism, and promote the construction of new housing system and system; The latter is the top-level design for China to further promote the reform of housing system, explore new models of real estate development and promote the high-quality development of housing.
Now, the two have not been put together, and the situation that "purchase" is heavy and "rent" is light still exists, and there are also many problems and experiences. For example, the expectation of rising house prices and its realization are not conducive to cultivating long-term rents; Compared with the development and sales of commercial housing, leasing operation is less profitable; Defects in land and housing sources and financing sources of leasing; All localities have not paid enough attention to the supply and management of leasing, and the effect of policy implementation needs to be improved; Lease rights, especially in children’s education, community identity, etc., are far from buying a house; The chaos of long-term rental apartments in capital operation, etc. Moreover, the degree of attention in various places also needs to be improved urgently.
Since the second half of last year, the state has taken substantial steps in controlling the rise in housing prices, promoting the construction of affordable housing, lowering the threshold for new citizens to settle down, and letting leases fall to collective households. With the joint efforts of relevant subjects, the construction of housing system with rent and purchase will be accelerated in the next five years. After the 20th National Congress, the governance efficiency will be comprehensively improved, and the people’s livelihood orientation of housing will be comprehensively strengthened. As a result, the pain points of upper and lower administrative management will be opened, the financial and asset attributes of housing will be comprehensively weakened, and the people’s livelihood attributes will be fully highlighted. In addition, the new system of actively competing for population and simultaneously renting and purchasing will make great progress.
Yan Yuejin, research director of think tank center of Yiju Research Institute: "Rent and purchase simultaneously" will introduce innovative content.
In the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the reform of the housing system was discussed under the general framework of "improving security and people’s livelihood", while this time in Report to the 20th CPC National Congress, it was carried out under the general framework of "enhancing people’s livelihood and improving people’s quality of life". From this comparison, we can see that improving quality will become an important content on the basis of protecting people’s livelihood. In other words, the housing system reform should take into account the dual goals of protecting people’s livelihood and improving quality.
With the stability of the short-term real estate market and the resolution of contradictions, the work of "rent and purchase simultaneously" mentioned since the 19th National Congress will be accelerated, and there will also be some innovative contents and ideas. For example, this year, some cities allowed landlords to bring personal housing into the supply system of affordable rental housing, and at the same time obtained new qualifications for buying houses. This is a good practice and a good model to fully integrate the rental and purchase markets and activate the increment of stock. There will be a series of new reforms and new measures in promoting the activity of the rental market and the house purchase market. This is also the content that relevant local governments, housing enterprises and citizens need to pay active attention to, so as to truly promote the healthy and stable development of China’s real estate industry with a high-quality model and a long-term perspective.
The current housing system reform will continue to expand from the perspective of supply-side structural reform in the past five years, especially at the distribution level. As far as the reform of the housing rental market is concerned, the last two years are crucial years for thoroughly implementing the spirit of the "14th Five-Year Plan" reform and increasing the supply of housing. With the increase of housing supply, how to ensure that the distribution field is more in place and more scientific, especially to protect the housing needs of new citizens, college students, three-child families and other groups? This is a question that reform must answer. At the same time, in the process of solving the housing problem, how to improve the quality and happiness is the key work to be studied and promoted after the "20 th National Congress".
Zhixin Investment Research Institute: New urbanization will promote regional housing demand.
The report proposes to speed up the establishment of a housing system with multi-agent supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase. This means that the domestic real estate market has changed from establishing a housing system combining market allocation and government guarantee to relying more on market-oriented and reasonable resource allocation. In the future, the housing policy will focus on the supply and demand sides, better meet the demand for rigid and improved housing, reasonably and effectively increase the housing supply, and let all the people live and live.
The report also puts forward that it is necessary to promote coordinated regional development and implement the new urbanization strategy in depth. At present, the urban pattern with urban agglomeration as the main body has been basically completed, and the development of new urbanization in the future will enhance the carrying capacity of urban agglomeration and metropolitan area. Key urban agglomerations and core cities have entered the era of metropolitan construction, and floating population has become the main driving force for urban population growth.
There will be three important trends in the future population movement: first, the population will continue to gather in key eastern coastal provinces; Second, the population growth rate in the metropolitan area of first-tier cities has increased; Third, the siphonage effect of capital cities in the central and western regions is more obvious. As a result, new urbanization will promote the demand for regional housing.