A few days ago, McKinsey and BOF jointly released the report "The State of Fashion 2024", which deeply discussed the current situation and future trend of the global fashion industry. The report covers consumer behavior, brand strategy, digital transformation and sustainable development. Let’s take stock of the potential challenges and opportunities that the fashion industry will face in 2024 through the interpretation of the report.

In 2024, fashion companies will face economic headwinds, technological changes and changing competition patterns. However, changes in consumers’ focus will continue to bring opportunities.

—— Introduction to the report

According to the report of The State of Fashion 2024,In the coming year, challenges such as weak economic growth, persistent inflation and weak consumer confidence may make industry leaders feel a lot of uncertainty. In this context, it will be a new challenge for enterprises to discover the value depression and release the new motivation of performance.

We can see:It is predicted that the growth of all regions will slow down but tend to be normal in 2024, among which the growth of non-luxury goods and luxury goods market in China will be higher than that in the United States and Europe in the same period.

McKinsey also predicted that:In 2024, the retail sales of the global fashion industry will achieve a year-on-year growth of 2%-4% (there will be slight differences between different countries and regions). The luxury goods market will once again create the largest share of economic profits. It is estimated that the growth rate of global retail sales of luxury goods will slow down from 5%-7% in 2023 to 3%-5% in 2024, because consumers will curb consumption after experiencing the shopping boom after the pandemic.

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Trend Prospect of Fashion Industry in 2024

# Global economy #

01 fragmented future

"In 2024, the global economic outlook may continue to be turbulent, and consumer spending may decrease in the coming year," the report wrote.Challenges from finance, geopolitics and other aspects will affect the confidence of global consumers, which requires suppliers, brands and retailers to strengthen emergency response measures.

The economic outlook report released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on November 29th also shows that:The global GDP growth rate will slow down from 2.9% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024, and it is estimated that the GDP growth will improve slightly in 2025, reaching 3%.It is predicted that from 2024 to 2025, Asia will continue to contribute most of the global economic growth as it did in 2023.

It is worth mentioning that "Emerging Asia", as a promising market, will provide potential growth points.

The urgency of climate

In the past year, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather have proved that the climate crisis is continuing to intensify. These crises also make the fashion industry more fragile. According to the report, by 2030, extreme weather events may endanger the clothing export business worth $65 billion and make nearly 1 million jobs disappear in the four most important economies of the global fashion industry.

According to a report by Fashion Without Borders, 2024 may be the first year when the global average surface temperature is 1.5°C higher than that in the pre-industrial era. This is the first time that the British National Weather Service has predicted that the temperature may temporarily exceed 1.5°C within one year.As the climate crisis worsens, we in the fashion industry can’t delay any longer. We need to build resilience in the fashion supply chain and help reduce emissions.

# Consumer transfer #

03 vacation mode

Consumers are preparing for the largest tourism year since the outbreak of the pandemic. It is estimated that the number of global tourists will exceed the pre-pandemic level for the first time in 2024, reaching 110% of the 2019 level.

For travelers, shopping is still their "top priority". The data shows that 80% of consumers surveyed from the United States, Britain and China said they would buy fashion products when traveling in 2024, and 28% of them plan to spend more than the previous year; More than half of the respondents said they were looking for destinations they had never been to, including second-tier cities.Faced with such demand and changes in market trends, brands and retailers should consider updating their distribution and category strategies to meet the needs of travelers anytime and anywhere.

The new face of influence

The report also mentioned that compared with previous years, 68% of consumers began to be troubled by a large number of sponsored content on social media, and 65% of consumers reduced their dependence on fashion influencers.Consumers are more looking forward to the demand for authenticity, entertainment and approachable personality. The creators of "New Wave" were also born.-they advocate less exquisite aesthetics, grotesque, humor, and fragility.

In order to capture and retain the attention of online consumers in 2024, fashion marketers may break the tried-and-true routine and explore new ways to cooperate with creators.

05 outdoor sports re-innovation

Consumers’ pursuit of healthy lifestyle and "Gorpcore style" has promoted the development of technical outdoor clothing, and this trend may be further accelerated.More and more outdoor brands may launch lifestyle series, and lifestyle brands will integrate technical elements into the series, further blurring the boundary between functionality and fashion.

In recent years, outdoor clothing and shoes have been repositioned as daily items, which means thatThe brand will establish a closer relationship between style and practicality.. With the cooling of the "Gorpcore" trend,Brands may begin to tend to be low-key, "quiet outdoor" fashion.. The report also predicts that in 2024,Competition at different price points and categories may be intensified.Some outdoor brands will tilt their clothes to the high end, while others will adjust their footwear products.

# Fashion System #

06 new generation artificial intelligence

After the emergence of generative artificial intelligence in 2023, there have been some use cases in creative industries including fashion. In 2023, the equity financing of start-ups focusing on generative artificial intelligence surged, reaching $14.1 billion in the first half of this year alone.To seize the value of this revolutionary technology in 2024, the fashion industry needs to go beyond automation and explore its potential to enhance the work of human creative personnel.At present, the EU has reached a preliminary agreement on the artificial intelligence bill, which has reached three points of consensus, including clarifying the obligations of AI systems classified as high-risk, and proposing that citizens should have the right to lodge complaints and have the right to obtain meaningful explanations; The general AI system and model must be transparent, and the biometric identification system should be used in public places for law enforcement purposes, thus achieving exceptions and safeguards for law enforcement exemption.

As mentioned in the report, as many as a quarter of the potential value of generative artificial intelligence in fashion may be driven by use cases in design and product development. 73% of fashion executives have said that in 2024, generative artificial intelligence will become a priority for their enterprises, and 28% of enterprises have tried to use it in the creative process of design and product development.

07 fast fashion power game

In the coming year, the competition of fast fashion may be more intense. Challengers, led by Shein, a B2C fast fashion e-commerce platform, and Temu, a cross-border platform owned by Pinduoduo, are changing their strategies around price, customer experience and speed.

In the past 12 months, 40% American consumers and 26% British consumers have shopped in Shein or Temu. The success of these companies benefits from the innovation of operating models, including flexible design of supply chain from manufacturers to consumers and data-driven product design. These innovations make fashion faster and cheaper than before.

In 2024, this generation of fast fashion may face some challenges as the standards of regulators and consumers on topics such as sustainable development and trade practice are constantly changing.The success of disruptors and incumbents will depend on whether they can adapt to the changing consumer preferences and control the laws and regulations that may affect the industry.

08 Pay attention to the brand

The pattern facing the fashion industry is changing, and performance marketing is no longer the main focus.Brand marketing may become the focus of fashion again in the coming year. The emotional connection between consumers and brands is also likely to become the key for fashion marketers to adjust their strategies and emphasize long-term brand building strategies.According to the survey, 71% of fashion executives plan to invest more money in brand marketing in 2024 than before, and 46% plan to invest more money in effect marketing.

In view of the increasing cost of effect marketing and the restrictions on customer orientation by data privacy laws, fashion marketers need to find new ways to attract shoppers.In the future, brands may improve the way of establishing emotional connection with consumers through marketing, and may cooperate in fashion industry and adjacent fields to create fascinating brand stories.

09 sustainability rules

The era of self-restraint and sustainable development of fashion industry will end on a global scale. New rules from various jurisdictions may have a wide impact on consumers and the fashion industry. Brands and manufacturers need to reform their business models to adapt to future changes.

The report also mentioned that at the end of 2023, there were as many as 16 pieces of legislation related to fashion and textiles under discussion in the EU alone, and the first batch will take effect in 2024. Relevant laws and regulations will cover the whole fashion value chain from product design to marketing, which will have an impact on consumers and enterprises around the world.

10 whip effect

The change of consumer demand leads to the "Bullwhip effect", which brings pressure to fashion suppliers.The "bullwhip effect" refers to the phenomenon that when the demand information in the middle and lower reaches of the supply chain is transmitted to the upstream, retailers, distributors and wholesalers are overweight layer by layer because the information cannot be effectively shared, and the demand is getting higher and higher upstream, just like waving a bullwhip, which eventually leads to a great difference between the demand data obtained by the most original supplier and the demand information of customers in the actual consumer market.

In the fashion industry, the impact of demand fluctuation on upstream suppliers is particularly serious. According to the report data, the production capacity of factories that were produced at full capacity in 2021 has dropped by 30%-40% by 2023. According to 73% of chief procurement officers, this volatility will become one of the primary challenges affecting supplier relations in the next five years.If the supply wants to keep up with the expected new demand, brands and retailers should consider paying attention to transparency and strengthening strategic partnership.

*

The report of The State of Fashion 2024 writes:Looking forward to 2024, fashion leaders are expected to encounter more unfavorable factors and feel uncertain about the prospects for the coming year.. In the survey conducted in early September, 26% of the respondents expected the market situation to improve in 2024, 37% expected the situation to remain unchanged, and 38% expected the situation to deteriorate. This is the biggest difference in the BoF-McKinsey survey since 2017.

It is not difficult to predict that the next year will still be a year of crisis and opportunity. Although it is full of changes, there is still a breakthrough prospect.Facing the innovation of science and technology and the development of artificial intelligence, enterprises can seize opportunities by making full use of technology; Faced with the increasing demand of consumers for authenticity and affinity of content, marketers can consider taking advantage of the new wave of creation to create a new brand narrative; In the year when people rekindle their enthusiasm for travel, enterprises can further enhance the way of interacting with consumers and create a brand experience that breaks through the tradition …

All in all, 2024 is a challenging year. We are full of confidence, but we are not blindly optimistic. We also expect industry practitioners to ride the wind and waves, rebuild their confidence in the process of recovery, lay a solid foundation and accumulate wealth.

For more details, please pay attention to WeChat WeChat official account: Fashion Without Borders.

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[7] Wan Wan. Pay attention to pudendal pruritus. I know 100 passwords for adolescent girls that my daughter’s heart and mother should know [M]. 2013

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Recently, I participated in many activities, had in-depth exchanges with colleagues in the industry, and summed up five main points about the changes in current tourism modes to share with you.

The first change lies in the change of travel mode, and more people prefer free travel, small group and family travel. Compared with traditional OTA and e-commerce platforms, it tends to focus on short videos and pay attention to word-of-mouth communication. With the rapid rise of Tik Tok, it has put some pressure on Meituan and Ctrip.

Secondly, the travel radius is polarized. Short-distance travel mainly focuses on the range of half an hour to one hour, while long-distance travel covers Xinjiang, Qinghai, Tibet and other places, and even extends to foreign countries.

The third aspect focuses on two groups of tourists who have attracted much attention. One is family travel driven by the needs of parents and children, and the other is group tours or free travel for the elderly.

Fourthly, it involves the evolution of travel themes. Many traditional themes have been re-hyped this year. Outdoor, hiking and cycling are obviously popular, and the explosion of jackets is one of the manifestations.

Finally, the travel budget, air tickets generally rose by 50%, and the price increase at the resource end led to an increase in the overall travel cost. There were significant differences in class differentiation and consumption classification, and the middle class consumption was degraded. Travel colleagues need to adjust their business strategies and respond flexibly according to market trends to ensure their competitiveness in the current market environment.

The governing body of UEFA’s Fiscal Fairness Act has published a new rule, the so-called "squad cost ratio".

Too complicated and obscure terms will not be detailed. Compared with the existing FFP rules, there are important changes in thinking.

Before FFP rules, the main monitoring isdeficit. Most teams that violate the rules have become the focus of supervision and even punishment by UEFA because the deficit exceeds the red line.

The FFP rules in the next few years will mainly monitorProportion.The ratio of the team’s expenditure to the net revenue will be monitored, and the team that exceeds the ratio will be punished.

Expenditures include but are not limited to players’ salaries, employees’ salaries (such as coaching staff), transfer fee expenses, commission expenses and so on. The specific proportion is set at 90% in 2023-24 season, 80% in 2024-25 season and 70% in 2025-26 season, and will continue thereafter.

How will the new rules affect Inter Milan? Italian media made a concrete analysis.

Let’s look at the revenue first.

Counting the gains from the European War, Inter Milan’s current single-season revenue is about 408.8 million euros, ranking second in Serie A, not much worse than AC Milan (400.3 million) and lower than Juventus (483.3 million). After all, the Bianconeri have unique advantages such as their own stadium, which is unmatched by the two Milan in the short term.

Look at the amount of expenditure.

At present, the total salary of Inter Milan’s coaching staff is 178.6 million euros, which is lower than Juventus’ 242.95 million, but much higher than AC Milan’s 133.2 million.

Inter Milan’s transfer fee amortization, impairment and other costs, a single season is 97.649 million euros, although lower than Juventus’ 155.9 million euros, but much higher than AC Milan’s 55.054 million euros.

Inter Milan’s expenditure on brokerage commission is also about twice that of AC Milan. Generally speaking, the total expenditure of Inter Milan in a single season is 287 million euros, which is higher than AC Milan’s 193.8 million and lower than Juventus’ 406.8 million.

If the proportion is calculated, the current expenditure ratio of Inter Milan is exactly 70%, which is barely in line with the final goal of UEFA FFP, but there is no room for financial tolerance, which means that the Nerazzurri are wandering around the red line and may not meet the standard if there is a slight change. Inter Milan’s situation is better than Juve’s(Expenditure ratio is 84%)Slightly better, but among the top three in the North, there is still more room for fault tolerance than AC Milan, which has only 48% of the expenditure..

Such a situation will greatly constrain Inter’s business thinking in the next few years.

What is the concept of wandering around the red line? It means that Inter Milan has little resistance to unplanned risks..

If Inter Milan can’t make achievements in increasing income and are unwilling to make efforts in reducing costs, then in the next few years, many situations may lead Inter Milan to cross the red line and encounter penalties from UEFA.

Risk is obviously more than an epidemic, which is an irresistible natural disaster.

For example, even if you run a failed signing like Correa, or get a high-paying contract.

For example, something happened in the north stand, which led to the stadium being punished for being empty.

For example, the nightmare of the Kong Di era repeats itself, and which year failed to qualify for the Champions League.

For another example, the uproar of those politicians in Italy led to the new tax law not being applied to the football field as they wished.

….. These are things that have happened or are in operation in recent years, and no one dares to say that they will not happen again in the next few years.

If something really goes wrong, Inter Milan can only use "traditional artistic skills" to deal with the censorship.

Such as the magical use of vouchers. At that time, in the first year, Inter Milan sold more than 10 million youth training members whose names I couldn’t name to Atlanta, and used the proceeds to cope with the review. In the second year, they sold more than 10 million echelon members to Real Blue Black. Finally, after successfully passing the trial, they bought Bastoni at a premium of 31 million (at that time, the premium was calculated) and "calculated the general ledger" with Atlanta. The series of transactions helped Inter avoid the more severe punishment of UEFA and won the time to move around. This is the "creativity" that Mallota and Ausilio often talk about.

But obviously, this is only an emergency measure, not the right way.

Under the current situation, Inter Milan should still regard increasing income and reducing costs as the top priority of the team.Even if the proportion can be reduced from 70% to 65%, the rope tied around the neck will be a little looser.

It is very difficult to increase income, but there are still some places to look forward to, such as the continuous growth of social networking sites’ income, such as participating in the World Club Cup, and whether the rented players hyped by Gazzetta dello Sport today can exchange 22M funds in the coming year, just like this summer.

The pressure to reduce costs is not small, and Inter should try to ensure that every large salary expenditure is put to greater use.

This is one of the reasons why Inter Milan sold brozovic this summer. The current Nerazzurri, under great financial pressure, really can’t afford a rotation player with a pre-tax salary of more than 12 million.

It can be predicted that under the constraints of UEFA, with next-door neighbor AC Milan as a comparison, Inter Milan will pay more attention to the control of salary expenditure in the future, and the probability of new brozovic transactions will never be small.

Live broadcast on November 3, according to the analysis of London football, Tottenham’s winter window should reinforce three positions: central defender, midfielder and striker.

centre halfback

The priority of Tottenham Hotspur’s Winter Window is central defender. Romero and Van der Waen have performed well together, but they still need to introduce a new central defender. The team’s Summer Window has been rumored with Adala Biow of Fulham and Kelly of Bournemouth. Now it is necessary to consider whether Winter Window will sign in the Premier League or go to other leagues to find a target.

midfield region

At present, Tottenham Hotspur have enough midfielders, but due to the influence of the African Cup of Nations, they will lose Sal and Bisuma in January, and the return of Bentancur will bring great help. However, considering the situation of Sal and Bisuma, Tottenham may reinforce the midfield in the winter window.

vanguard

Signing a new striker in January may also be one of Tottenham’s priorities. Both Perisic and Solomon are plagued by injuries. Sun Xingyu also needs to participate in the Asian Cup. They need to add another striker. A striker who can play on the wing and in the middle will help Postecoglou.

（Luca）

To meet the dawn of the day, we shuttle through the lens of life. In this busy world, film attracts us with its simple aesthetic feeling every day, as if time is stopped at every wonderful moment.

Fashion is not always a symbol of luxury. Sometimes, simplicity is enough for us to find something extraordinary in the ordinary. Film-style daily life reveals a different aesthetic feeling. The unique color and texture make the photos seem to be works of art, and each photo is the product of the blend of fashion and life. This simple beauty not only stays in photos, but also is an attitude towards life.

Photography is an art of capturing moments, and film is an important medium of this art. Film daily is not only a way of taking pictures, but also a unique look at life. In this visual context, we have learned to discover the little fortunate things in our daily life and turn ordinary moments into extraordinary ones. A simple cup of coffee, mottled sunshine outside the window and pedestrians on the street have all become beautiful pictures in film daily life.

Every film photo is the imprint of time and the accumulation of bits and pieces in life. Different from the cold pixels of digital photos, film photos have a unique sense of warmth, as if recording the story of the years. They are pages in our life journey and constitute a wonderful and touching picture book. This is the daily charm of film. Through each photo, we see the beautiful changes of time.

Fashion is not just publicity and show off. Sometimes, simplicity is the most profound fashion. Film daily interprets a kind of low-key luxury with its simple and unique aesthetics. From clothing to home, simple design style has gradually become the mainstream of the trend. Simple elements, through careful collocation and design, show a unique taste and make people unforgettable.

Film not only stays in the art of photography, but also advocates a way of life. Simple life is not a abandonment of material things, but a pursuit of internal quality. Abandoning triviality and complexity, we can focus on what is really important in life. This simple life not only makes our appearance more fashionable, but also promotes our connotation.

Fashion not only exists on the runway of fashion show, but also is reflected in our daily wear. The daily wearing of film emphasizes the beauty of simplicity, and shows unique taste through simple design and collocation. Plain clothes, classic styles, and a little ingenuity can create a stylish and personalized shape. A simple white shirt with a pair of jeans, or a black dress, can show the high sense of simplicity.

Fashion not only stays in clothes, but also the simple aesthetics of film daily permeates home life. Simple lines and the texture of logs create a livable home space. Simple furniture and layout can make the whole space glow with a unique fashion atmosphere without complicated decoration. In a simple home environment, we can find inner peace and comfort.

Film daily life is not only an external expression, but also an inner attitude. In the busy city life, we are often troubled by trivial things and forget to enjoy the small blessings in life. The daily mentality of film is to let us slow down and feel the beauty of life with our heart. Maybe it’s a cup of delicious coffee, maybe a good book, or a chat with friends. These are the beauty contained in simplicity.

Simple is beautiful, which is not only an aesthetic concept, but also an attitude towards life. Film injects fashion into all aspects of life in its simple way every day. From photography to wearing, from home to mentality, simplicity has become synonymous with fashion. Let’s put aside the complexity, pursue inner peace, enjoy the bits and pieces of life, and define our own fashion life with simple definitions. Simple but not simple, this is the real beauty of fashion.

The hot sun is like fire, and the desert is like the sea. An archaeologist specializing in the ancient city of Loulan on Mount Everest crossed the desert alone, aiming to find the legendary ancient city of Loulan. The sand at the foot of Mount Everest is hot and boiling, and every step is like walking on a hot pot. There is little water left and food is only enough for two days. And what is even more desperate is that he found that his compass seems to have lost its function in this desert.

As night falls, Mount Everest hides from the scorching sun under the sand dunes, while taking advantage of the coolness at night to move on. Suddenly he saw an old building, which was mostly buried in the desert, but he could still see its exquisite decoration and craftsmanship. Everest was ecstatic, and he finally found it.

Everest walked into the building carefully. Although he was prepared psychologically, he was surprised by what he saw. The walls are covered with vivid murals, describing the life, wars and sacrifices of the ancient Loulan people. One of the most striking is a huge mural, in which a man is wearing gorgeous clothes and holding a strange weapon. His eyes reveal great strength and wisdom.

Mount Everest was deeply attracted by this mural, and he decided to find out the identity of this mysterious figure.

When it comes to culture, some people say that I went to college and studied as a graduate student, so I am a literate person. In fact, this is just a person’s education and diploma, not a real culture.

So, what is culture? Broadly speaking, culture refers to the sum of all material products and spiritual products created by human beings. Nowadays, there are many interpretations of the definition of culture, but in any case, culture can not be separated from literacy, and culture can not be separated from consciousness. A literate person is a person who can strive for goodness, progress and progress, a person who pursues personality charm, and a person who can be strictly self-disciplined. Such a person is a literate person with connotation.

Culture, culture, is to educate people. Wen is a civilization, and Wen is a literary spirit! Human society, from ignorance to civilization, this is the progress of society and the development of the times. A person with quality is a person who can arm his mind with culture. Such a person is a literate person and a civilized person.

Literature needs literature, but also needs culture. We should "create" people with literature and inspire people with literature, so as to keep pace with the times, keep pace with civilization, keep moving forward and strengthen ourselves. The Chinese nation has a long and splendid history and culture of 5,000 years, which makes us proud and glorious. The ancient sages have left us countless famous sayings that inspire people’s minds. These are the great wisdom of life, from which we can absorb spiritual nutrition, implant culture in our hearts, infiltrate into people’s bone marrow, and become a powerful spiritual driving force for life growth.

Culture and culture are precious in a word "Hua", and culture can be imperceptibly influenced; Culture can be passed down; Culture needs the unity of knowing and doing, being a man should talk less and do more, keep a low profile and do things with a high profile, which is the charm of culture. People live in reality, the commodity economy is a pluralistic society, colorful, singing and dancing, and all kinds of temptations come to us. Many people can’t stand the temptation of feasting, forget their initial heart, lose their kindness, empty spirit, impetuous mood, money first and self first; Some people make a lot of money, but they have no spiritual support, and eventually they fall down on the road of life.

There was a network anchor named Viya. In two years, she evaded taxes by 643 million yuan, and finally the tax authorities fined her a total of 1.341 billion yuan. She earns hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Some people don’t understand why she should do such a thing as tax evasion when she earns so much money a day. To put it bluntly, it is greed, which is the lack of culture. The lack of greed has been verified in her. People, if they leave morality and kindness, they will be greedy and will eventually be harmed by greed. Such examples are heard from time to time in reality.

A person can make money without money. Modern society provides everyone with a platform for self-development. As long as a person can work hard and strive for self-improvement, he can find his own life stage. If a person has no morality and culture, even if he earns a lot of money, he will eventually "spit it out". This is called settling accounts after the autumn, which is also called what goes around comes around, and what goes around comes around comes around. This is the causal relationship of life, and it is also a cultural embodiment of being a man.

To be a cultured person, this culture is to be a self-disciplined person, a person who can control his own behavior, a person who can control his own mouth, and a person who can control his own behavior. Perhaps some people will say that it is really too difficult and too bitter to be a man like this. In fact, suffering is also a kind of culture. If you eat bitter, you can be a master. If you don’t be a master, you have to consciously look for bitterness. This is a self-disciplined life. If you don’t suffer hardships in life, you won’t get rewards. Take pleasure in suffering, take pleasure in suffering, and strive for a life. This is the culture of being a man and a man with literacy.

Baseball is not popular in China for the following reasons:

1. Low popularity: The popularity of baseball in China is far less than that of football, basketball and other sports. Due to historical reasons, the development of baseball in China started late and the mass base was weak. At the same time, baseball equipment is relatively expensive, which also limits the popularity of baseball.

2. Insufficient publicity and promotion: Compared with other popular sports, baseball is less publicized and promoted in China. As a result, many people don’t know enough about baseball, and their interest is naturally low.

3. Fewer events are held: the frequency of baseball events in China is low, so it is difficult for the audience to have the opportunity to watch high-level baseball games on the spot. This also makes baseball less concerned in China.

4. Lack of baseball culture: Compared with developed countries such as Japan, China lacks profound baseball culture. Without the support of culture, the popularization and promotion of sports will be greatly limited.

5. Low competitive level: China’s baseball performance on the international stage is relatively weak, which also leads to the low attention of domestic audiences to baseball.

6. Uneven development of sports industry: In China, the development of football, basketball, table tennis and other sports has been strongly supported by the government and enterprises, while baseball and other sports have been relatively neglected. This makes the development space of baseball in China limited.

In a word, there are many reasons why baseball is not popular in China, including popularity, promotion, event holding, cultural background, competitive level and uneven development of sports industry. To improve the attention and popularity of baseball in China, we need to start from all aspects, increase publicity, improve competitive level, cultivate baseball culture, and strive for more policy and financial support.

2022A&2023Q1, affected by epidemic situation, consumer psychology, traffic environment and other multiple factors, the sales of beauty cosmetics with optional & fast-disappearing properties are not ideal. The performance differentiation of listed companies has intensified; Online beauty products are shrinking and Tik Tok’s beauty products are increasing, but there is no obvious recovery offline. Looking forward to the second quarter, both the demand side and the supply side of beauty cosmetics are improving marginally, and the low base caused by the epidemic in the same period last year is superimposed, and the growth rate of the industry is expected to bottom out. However, due to the lack of driving force at the bottom, the recovery rate may be limited; Prefer stocks whose current growth can hedge the unfavorable factors of the industry.

▍ Performance is generally under pressure and differentiation is intensified.

1) Revenue & profit: the growth rate slows down, and the performance of high-quality leading players is tough. In 2022, the total operating income of six brand listed companies was 22.07 billion yuan/year-on-year+31.3%, with a growth rate of-16.7 pcts; Among them, the income growth rate of Polaiya (+37.8%/+14.3 pcts) and Juzi Bio (+52.3%/+21.9 pcts) increased against the trend.

2) In 2022, the total attributable net profit of six brand listed companies was 4.06 billion yuan/+11.0%, and the attributable net profit of Polaiya ranked first with a growth rate of 41.9%, and the profit growth rates of Huaxi Bio, Juzi Bio and Betani all exceeded 20%.

3) Gross profit margin: most of them declined, while Polaiya & Marumi rose against the trend, and the gross profit margin of Juzi Bio ranked first; The gross profit margin of Polaiya and Marumi shares was 69.7%/68.4% respectively, which was+3.2/+4.4 pcts year-on-year; Juzi Bio ranks first in the gross profit margin of all brand beauty listed companies with 84.4%.

4) Net interest rate attributable: most of them declined, while Polaiya rose against the trend. In 2022, the net interest rate of six brand listed companies increased by one and decreased by five; Among them, the net interest rate of Polaiya was 12.8%, which was +0.4pct year-on-year.

▍ Amoy’s beauty cosmetics contracted, Tik Tok’s beauty cosmetics increased, and the proportion of Tik Tok’s channels occupied online increased.

Industry perspective: 22 years of negative growth in Amoy beauty, 23Q1 decline narrowed; 22 years’ high growth of beauty in Tik Tok. 1) Amoy Department: According to the market intelligence data of Magic Mirror, the sales of beauty cosmetics of Amoy Department in 2022 was 280.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of-13.4% and-22.1 pcts; In 2023Q1, the sales volume of Amoy beauty cosmetics was 54.2 billion yuan, which was-12.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was+1.6 pcts; 2) Tik Tok: According to the data of Mama Chan and Jumei, the sales of beauty cosmetics in Tik Tok in 2022 was 90.2 billion yuan, up+113.7% year-on-year; In Q1 of 2023, the sales of beauty cosmetics in Tik Tok reached 31 billion yuan, up+83.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was +30.5pcts.

Corporate perspective: online revenue accounted for 57% ~ 91%, and the proportion of online channels in Tik Tok increased. In 2022, Polaiya Online accounted for 91%/+6pcts, of which Tik Tok accounted for about 15%+; Huaxi biological functional skin care products account for about 93%/+3 pcts online; Among them, Tik Tok accounts for about 31%/+14 pcts; Betaine online accounted for 81%/+1 pct, of which Tik Tok revenue accounted for 9%/+3 pcts; Giant biological line accounts for 57%/+15 pcts; Marubi shares accounted for 72%/+12 pcts online.

▍ Focus on creating classic big items and strengthening brand mind.

Local beauty companies actively increase their research and development, and empower them to create large items from many aspects such as raw materials and formulas.

Winona: Breaking the circle of "sensitivity+",consolidating the original superior items and creating a new generation of big items of the elite family;

Polaiya: The matrix of large single products has been initially built, and the strategy of large single products has been firmly implemented. New products such as Cloud Sun Protection and Double Anti-3.0 have been listed;

Run Baiyan: Brand mind is upgraded from basic moisturizing to technological repair, focusing on creating three series of barrier conditioning, light damage repair and time repair;

Quadi: Focus on eye cream and face cream to create an anti-aging mind. In April 2023, Quadi put on a new eye cream for young people (anti-eye cream);

Mibel: The main products are water and essence. In February, 2023, Mibel put on a new multi-vitality essence eye cream and a young age firming new muscle essence (3A purple essence).

Muscle activity: build large single products around brown rice series. According to the market information of magic mirror, in 2022, brown rice water single products accounted for 37.5%;

Marubi: continuously focus on eye and anti-aging products, mainly promoting the series of recombinant collagen and polypeptide red pens.

▍ New products have been put on record, and contents such as ingredient IP and "skin care formula" have been marketed.

According to the data of the State Food and Drug Administration, since the beginning of 2023, new products of local beauty listed companies have been put on record: 65 Marubi, 62 Polaiya, 55 Huaxi Bio, 38 shanghai jahwa, 20 Betani, 18 Giant Bio and 18 Lushang Development. The volume of recombinant collagen has increased, and Juzi and Marubi have launched high-potential new products with recombinant collagen peptide as the core component and increased their delivery to create explosions; The "skin care formula" extends from "early C late A" to "early P late R".

▍ Risk factors:

Post-epidemic recovery progress, insufficient willingness to consume, sustained recovery, etc. may have negative effects; Strict supervision or exceeding expectations; The progress of enterprise product development or approval may be less than expected, which will have a negative impact on performance.

▍ Investment strategy:

From the second quarter, both the demand side and the supply side of beauty cosmetics are expected to improve marginally. Adding to the low base caused by the epidemic in the same period last year, the growth rate of the industry is expected to bottom out. However, in view of the fact that the driving force of the industry has not changed substantially, the recovery rate may be limited. Judging from the third data such as magic mirror and mother, the growth rate of online beauty data in April has turned positive to a small positive growth; The situation of further recovery needs to be observed in the "618 Great Promotion" which started in late May. In terms of investment, there are many structural and individual opportunities.

Main line 1: Recommend companies that have outstanding comprehensive capabilities or are currently in the harvest period of change.

Main line 2: Recommend companies that adjust in stages, whose stock prices fully reflect the negative, and whose fundamentals are expected to improve marginally.

Main line 3: It is recommended to choose the right opportunity to lay out the air outlet track with outstanding technical advantages and good growth, but the stock price is affected by non-fundamental factors such as lifting the ban.

Main line 4: Recommend emerging sunscreen companies that are in the climbing cycle of capacity utilization rate, and actively expand into the field of personal care raw materials with broad growth space.

This article comes from a selection of brokerage research reports.