Cross-flow of the sea shows its true colors —— Enlightenment from China’s brilliant economic answer sheet in 2020
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, December 24th Title: The cross-flow of the sea shows its true colors — — Enlightenment of China’s brilliant economic answer sheet in 2020
Xinhua News Agency reporters Yu Jiaxin, Liu Hongxia, Zou Duowei and Du Jing.
In 2020, it is extremely extraordinary, and the word "pole" tells us that difficulties and obstacles are hard to come by, and it is also full of extraordinary achievements — —
The once-in-a-century COVID-19 epidemic broke out suddenly, and the world economy fell into the worst recession since the end of the Second World War. Some countries curbed and suppressed the all-round escalation … … This year, China’s economy faced an unprecedented "triple shock".
沧海横流，方显英雄本色。面对空前冲击，以习近平同志为核心的党中央统揽全局、领航定向，驾驭“中国号”经济巨轮破浪前行。
率先控制疫情，率先复工复产，率先实现经济增长由负转正，成为全球唯一实现经济正增长的主要经济体……中国交出了一份人民满意、世界瞩目、可以载入史册的答卷。
无限风光在险峰——中国答卷世界为之瞩目
《中国刚刚展示了世界多么需要它》——几天前，美国彭博新闻社网站发了这样一篇文章，称中国亮眼的经济表现令人印象深刻。
文章所提到的，正是中国国家统计局最新公布的数据：前11个月，民间投资增长0.2%，前10个月，全国规模以上工业企业利润总额增长0.7%，规模以上服务业企业营收增长0.3%……
继GDP、投资、外贸、消费等主要经济指标增速相继转正后，一个个新增“转正”数据，印证中国经济复苏基础更牢、信心更足。有外媒评价：中国经济持续复苏，这是给世界经济的一份礼物。
More and more indicators are "turning positive", which is a microcosm of China’s economy’s brilliant answer sheet in the special year — —
The economy is improving quarter by quarter, and the annual economic aggregate will exceed 100 trillion yuan, making it the only major economy in the world to achieve positive economic growth; Fulfill the promise and achieve the goal of getting rid of poverty as scheduled; To protect people’s livelihood, more than 11 million new jobs were created in cities and towns; Deepening the reform and opening up, the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port set sail, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) was successfully signed … …
How precious is this Chinese answer sheet?
To understand it, we must first recognize the existence of COVID-19 epidemic in human historical coordinates.
Su Shimin, co-founder and chairman of Blackstone Group, said that he had experienced seven large-scale market declines or recessions. "Unlike other times, the economic crisis caused by the impact of this epidemic is a once-in-a-century crisis."
In the past century, the world has experienced several major economic and financial crises. Looking far away, there was the Great Depression in 1929, and looking closer, there was the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the international financial crisis in 2008 … … But in terms of impact, it is difficult to compare with this epidemic.
"The epidemic will lead to the worst economic crisis since the 1930s." Martin wolf, deputy editor-in-chief and chief economic commentator of the Financial Times, told Xinhua that "the longer the epidemic lasts, the longer the blockade measures last, the deeper the economic recession and the more difficult it is to recover."
Such scenes are still haunting to recall: flights are grounded, shopping malls are closed, enterprises are closed, hospitals are saturated, and people’s cross-border flow is interrupted … …
In less than two weeks, US stocks melted four times and panic spread. International oil prices plummeted and financial markets fluctuated sharply; A large number of enterprises’ supply chains were interrupted and forced to stop production … …
Under the epidemic situation, the global flow presses the "pause button". A historic crisis sweeping the world has affected almost all industries and everyone.
Compared with the past, why is the impact of this epidemic so deep?
The impact on the global economy this year is not only different from the Great Depression in 1929, but also different from the impact brought by the spread of the international financial crisis in 2008. Instead, it faces the double impact of supply interruption and shrinking demand, and the difficulties are unprecedented. — — The Central Economic Work Conference held a few days ago pointed out this analysis.
A number of interviewed experts said that from the demand side, the blockade and social isolation measures taken to prevent and control the epidemic have led to a sharp drop in economic activities, and the three major demands of consumption, investment and export have been severely affected. From the supply side, the prevention and control of epidemic situation has greatly restricted the flow of people and caused a direct impact on related international trade and investment, and the global industrial chain has fallen into a "broken chain" crisis.
How serious is the impact of this epidemic compared with the past?
According to data released by the United Nations, from 2020 to 2021, the cumulative loss of global economic output will reach 8.5 trillion US dollars, almost erasing all the growth in the past four years. The World Economic Outlook Report issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economy will shrink by 4.4% in 2020.
Global trade and investment have shrunk dramatically. The World Trade Organization predicts that the global trade volume of goods will drop by 9.2% in 2020, which may exceed the decline after the global financial crisis in 2008. According to the Global Investment Trend Monitoring Report released by UNCTAD, the global foreign direct investment in the first half of this year dropped by 49% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level in nearly 20 years … …
In 2020, the American economy will decline by 4.3%, the euro zone economy will decline by 8.3%, and the Indian economy will decline by 10.3%… … The IMF made a series of pessimistic forecasts.
Pine and cypress are known at the age of cold, and grass is known at the height of wind. Amid the chill, China’s economy has injected hard-won warmth into the world economy.
On December 23rd, the World Bank released the latest economic bulletin of China, saying that China has achieved recovery at a speed "faster than expected" and its economy is expected to grow by 2% this year. The report released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that China will contribute more than one third to global economic growth. This means that after the impact of the epidemic, the weight of China’s economy to the world is increasing instead of decreasing!
回望中国经济发展历程，从1998年抗洪灾到2003年战“非典”、再到2008年汶川抗震救灾，从1997年遭遇亚洲金融危机到2008年国际金融危机袭来、再到近年来经历中美经贸摩擦……无论是自然灾害，还是经济危机，在经历一次次狂风骤雨洗礼后，中国经济越是艰难越向前，发展更有韧劲。
疫情发生以来，中国积极为全球提供防疫物资，仅口罩就超过2000亿只，全世界人均30只；全力以赴推进新冠疫苗研发，为推动疫苗成为全球公共产品作出中国贡献；中国坚定不移以实际行动维护全球产业链供应链稳定，支持其他国家稳定市场……
“中国统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展，为全球树立了榜样，也展现了负责任大国的担当。”中国现代国际关系研究院研究员陈凤英说。
会当水击三千里——科学应对彰显“中国之治”
12月21日，冬至。
北京大兴国际机场，寒风中一架客机缓缓驶出停机位、滑入跑道、加速、跃起……
几乎同时，民航局空管局值班室内，“空中航班航迹”图中，也多了一个“亮点”。
回忆战“疫”吃劲之时，2月18日，中国民航遭遇最“黑暗”一天：全天下来，只有3734个“亮点”。到10月1日，当天累计出现的“亮点”已达15144个，是2月18日的4倍之多。
航迹图“亮不亮”，直观反映中国“忙不忙”。无数小轨迹的变化，蕴含着中国防控疫情和推动经济社会发展的大逻辑。
这是凸显人民至上的中国实践——
面对疫情，各国都面临着无法回避的两难问题：如何兼顾疫情防控与经济发展？
这道考题着实不易。对中国而言，仅春节节后复工多延迟一天，全国减少的国内生产总值就约达1500亿元！尤其在决胜全面建成小康社会、决战脱贫攻坚的收官之年，发展任务之重更甚以往。
毫不畏难、绝不迟疑，以习近平同志为核心的党中央从一开始就“把人民生命安全和身体健康放在第一位”，人民至上、生命至上的理念熠熠生辉。
集中患者、集中专家、集中资源、集中救治……众志成城、举国援助，在这场气壮山河、艰苦卓绝的疫情防控阻击战中，上至百岁老人下至新生婴儿，每一个生命都得到珍视。
相比之下，一些以“人权灯塔”自居的西方国家，在保护民众方面屡屡慢半拍，甚至在“有钱有权就可以快速得到新冠病毒检测吗”的问题前，轻描淡写抛出“或许这就是人生”的回答。
《要救经济先救人》——美国智库新经济思维研究所近日以此为题发文，这样分析西方应对疫情为何败笔连连。
这是彰显科学决策的中国行动——
“我有熔喷布，谁有口罩机？”还记得，疫情严重时，我国口罩产量迅速从日产800万只提高到日产过亿只，一系列防疫物资跑出了复苏的“第一棒”。
从优先保障防疫物资生产，到各行业逐步复工复产；从为中小微企业提供政策“及时雨”，到餐馆、电影院逐步有了人气……我国成功走出一条有序复苏、持续复苏、绿色复苏之路。
面对重大考验，以习近平同志为核心的党中央以高超的判断力、果断的决策力、坚定的行动力，带领人民迎难而上、砥砺奋进。
新增1万亿元财政赤字，发行1万亿元抗疫特别国债，全年新增减税降费2.5万亿元，推动金融系统合理让利1.5万亿元……中国的一揽子对冲政策力度空前。
Different from some developed economies that push quantitative easing, or even "flood irrigation" with "unlimited" quantitative easing policy, China has always emphasized a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and grasped the timeliness and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies; Do a solid job in the "six guarantees" work, fully implement the "six guarantees" task, and better coordinate the prevention and control of epidemic situation and economic and social development.
"We are not radical, but that doesn’t mean that we don’t act or act slowly or less." Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that the issue of special anti-epidemic treasury bonds has increased the fiscal deficit, and the establishment of a special transfer payment mechanism has made many pioneering and proven policy innovations.
"China’s economy ‘ V’ The rebound is not an accident, let alone luck. It embodies the arduous struggle of all China people, China enterprises and government departments. " Hanspaul Bochner, global chairman of Boston Consulting, who has been concerned about China’s economic and social development for more than 50 years, commented on the "contrarian rise" of China’s economy when interviewed by reporters.
This is China’s responsibility to actively expand opening up and promote the building of a community of human destiny — —
899.38 billion yuan — — This is the data of the actual use of foreign capital in China in the first 11 months. Compared with the same period of last year, it increased by 6.3%, achieving year-on-year growth for eight consecutive months.
29.04万亿元——这是我国同期外贸进出口总值，同比增长1.8%，增速进一步加快。
外资外贸是观察一个经济体开不开放的重要窗口。全球疫情冲击下，一些国家沉迷于保护主义、单边主义、霸凌主义，中国却以开放的胸怀拥抱世界。外资外贸“双丰收”的结果，正是有力说明。
在确保防疫安全前提下，服贸会、广交会、进博会悉数如约举办，三大国际展会次第召开，架起扩大对外合作的桥梁，释放追求更高水平对外开放的信号。
累计与138个国家、31个国际组织签署201份共建“一带一路”合作文件，自贸试验区继续扩容，外商投资准入负面清单越来越短……面对逆风逆水，以习近平同志为核心的党中央勇开顶风船，始终站在历史正确的一边，坚定不移扩大对外开放。
一张蓝图干到底——砥柱中流指引未来航向
“中国又一次办到了：走出新一轮世界危机，并且，从在全球经济中的作用看，中国变得比以前更加强大。”
俄新社网站在此前发布的题为《中国再次战胜全球危机》的评论员文章中这样说。
更强大背后的密码何在？
“中国共产党领导下的制度优势”——翻看外媒对中国的观察文章，这样的分析比比皆是。
就在12月，相隔半个月的两件大事让人记忆犹新——
“经过8年持续奋斗，我们如期完成了新时代脱贫攻坚目标任务，现行标准下农村贫困人口全部脱贫，贫困县全部摘帽，消除了绝对贫困和区域性整体贫困，近1亿贫困人口实现脱贫，取得了令全世界刮目相看的重大胜利。”12月3日，中共中央政治局常委会会议上，习近平总书记如是郑重宣布。
“这是发挥新型举国体制优势攻坚克难取得的又一重大成就”，12月17日，中央经济工作会议期间，习近平总书记专门致电代表党中央、国务院和中央军委祝贺探月工程嫦娥五号任务取得圆满成功。
看似没有关联，它们背后却有一个共同点——
在这极不平凡的一年里，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，发挥集中力量办大事的制度优势，我们在攻坚克难中不断取得新突破。
“这一制度所具有的战略性、全局性、前瞻性和对全国资源的调动能力，是其他制度无法比拟的。”英国剑桥大学高级研究员马丁·雅克说。
令人瞩目的是，中央经济工作会议强调，在统筹国内国际两个大局、统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展的实践中，我们深化了对在严峻挑战下做好经济工作的规律性认识：
——党中央权威是危难时刻全党全国各族人民迎难而上的根本依靠；
——人民至上是作出正确抉择的根本前提；
——制度优势是形成共克时艰磅礴力量的根本保障；
——科学决策和创造性应对是化危为机的根本方法；
——科技自立自强是促进发展大局的根本支撑。
“这‘五个根本’是规律，也是经验，是我们统筹经济社会发展、从胜利走向胜利的根本遵循。”参加中央经济工作会议的与会同志在讨论中普遍认为，这是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义经济思想最新成果的高度概括。
在“五个根本”中，“党中央权威是危难时刻全党全国各族人民迎难而上的根本依靠”这一条是统领，是关键。
此时此刻，中国正处于历史交汇点上：“十四五”即将开局起步，全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程马上开启，向第二个百年奋斗目标进军的号角已经吹响！
Stepping on a new journey, we have the confidence and strength to cope with the challenges and risks, as well as the tenacity and enterprising spirit of a blueprint to the end — —
With a huge market of 1.4 billion people and more than 400 million middle-income groups, there is the largest and most potential consumer market in the world … … From the "Golden Week" of National Day to the "double 11" shopping season, China’s huge consumption scale and strength have amazed the world.
Strengthen the national strategic scientific and technological strength, enhance the self-control ability of the industrial chain supply chain, adhere to the strategic basic point of expanding domestic demand, and at the same time, emphasize the development and security … …
Adhering to the problem and goal orientation, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the overall requirements for economic work next year, defined the policy orientation, and deployed eight key tasks, carefully planned for the start of next year, and ensured that the construction of a new development pattern "took the first step and saw a new atmosphere".
The historical intersection is also a new historical starting point.
In a few days, 2021 will come. At the turn of the old and the new, we have another exciting news — —
After Chang ‘e V returned to Earth with a sample of the moon, the Long March 8 "one arrow and five stars" took off again. Jingxiong Intercity Railway is about to open for operation, and xiong’an new area under construction is showing a new look … …
Stepping on a new journey, China is striding forward for a better tomorrow!