A shares fell years later, what happened？

On January 5th, the market opened lower and went lower all day. The Growth Enterprise Market Index hit a new low, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index hit a record low, and the Beizheng 50 Index fell more than 4%. As of the close of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.85%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.07%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index fell 1.45%.

Today, stocks showed a general decline pattern. Over 4,700 stocks in the whole market fell, and only over 500 stocks rose. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 736.3 billion yuan, 62.9 billion yuan more than the previous trading day. Northbound funds bought 1.992 billion yuan in the whole day, of which Shanghai Stock Connect bought 1.564 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect bought 428 million yuan.

Regarding the reasons for the decline, respondents believe that from the external point of view, the funds are still tight, and the RMB exchange rate has weakened again after the New Year, and the growth stocks that are highly sensitive to the funds have fallen. Internally, the economic data in December last year was still not ideal. Investors’ expectations for the New Year’s market faded as some indexes such as Kechuang 50 hit new lows, and the atmosphere of market panic also rose further.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 1%

Today, A shares continued their weak trend, and the market plunged again. As of the close of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.85%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.07%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index fell 1.45%.

Judging from Shenwan’s first-class industry index, only banks and household appliances closed up.

Among them, the banking sector led the gains by 1.07%, with 38 stocks in the sector closing up and only 4 stocks closing down. Specifically, Ruifeng Bank rose 9.64%, approaching the daily limit. Suzhou Bank rose more than 6%, while CITIC Bank and Hangzhou Bank rose more than 3%.

The household appliances sector rose slightly by 0.98% as a whole, with 25 stocks in the sector closing up and 60 stocks closing down. Rewei shares and ASD closed the 10CM daily limit, Sichuan Jiuzhou and ST Tongzhou rose more than 5%, and Bear Electric, Aucma and Gree Electric rose more than 3%.

In terms of decline, the national defense industry led the decline with a decline of 3.13%, and the sectors such as communications, media, medicine and biology were among the top losers, all falling by more than 2%. In addition, comprehensive, computer, social services, electronics, mechanical equipment and other sectors followed.

Why did it fall?

"In the first four trading days of this year, A shares suffered from’ opening the door black’." Xia Fengguang, manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund, told reporters that it has fallen for four consecutive trading days and the decline is still accelerating. From the perspective of the structure of market operation, growth stocks and small-cap stocks are among the top losers, and the once-active North Securities Index has also begun to fall. Relatively strong banking stocks only played a temporary role in pulling up the index, which not only did not change the operating trend of the market, but also diverted the originally limited funds.

Regarding the reasons for the decline, Xia Fengguang believes that from the external point of view, the funds are still tight, and the RMB exchange rate has weakened again after the New Year, and the growth stocks that are highly sensitive to the funds have fallen. Internally, the economic data in December last year was still not ideal. Investors’ expectations for the New Year’s market faded as some indexes such as Kechuang 50 hit new lows, and the atmosphere of market panic also rose further.

"In the first week of 2024, A-shares did not usher in the expected opening market. But overall, the current market is in a relatively mild internal and external market environment, which is conducive to opening a window for A-shares to repair the market. " Zhang Xiaodong, manager of Gecko Capital Fund, pointed out that there are two main reasons for the weak market confidence: on the one hand, economic growth shows a slow recovery trend, and there is no acceleration; On the other hand, the current A-share market is adjusting downward, and traders’ confidence is insufficient.

"After the New Year’s Day in 2024, A shares continued to plummet and adjust. In essence, this is because of the shortage of funds and liquidity problems." For example, Huang Huayan, general manager of Avenue Xingye Investment, said that if funds fled from technology stocks and entered the tourism sector recently, Changbai Mountain had four consecutive daily limit. In addition, weak consumption expectations continue to affect the rebound space of liquor, medicine, medical beauty, tax exemption and other sectors.

According to Hao Xinming, the manager of Fangxin Wealth Investment Fund, the main reason for the weak market is that the unfavorable microeconomic environment can’t give enough support to the bulls in their pessimistic expectations of macro data.

Xingshi Investment believes that the current lack of market confidence is still the main constraint. When the bottom stock game is superimposed, the stock market’s response to good information is relatively dull, but it is highly sensitive to potential risks. Specifically, the main factors affecting this week’s market are three aspects: first, the manufacturing boom declined in December 2023, and the expansion of the construction industry accelerated; Second, PSL (Mortgage Supplementary Loan) was restarted, but the market response was dull; Third, the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate cut has dropped, and the interest rate of US bonds has risen slightly.

Waiting for the market sentiment to return

"At present, A shares are in a downward trend, and the rebound confrontation before the holiday failed as the index adjusted to a new low." Hao Xinming told reporters that the market outlook may continue to decline until the transaction volume shrinks to a lower level and maintains a weekly or even more time period. Wait until the short-selling power is released before a large-scale rebound can be ushered in.

On the whole, Hao Xinming believes that this year’s market is probably still the trend of bottoming out, and the possibility of exploring new lows is not ruled out, but it is also a year of excessive turning point that breeds bull market, and it needs to have enough confidence to make layout.

"As has been repeatedly suggested recently, the market may be at the end of a bear market. On the one hand, investors need to strengthen their confidence in holding shares, on the other hand, they need to avoid the extreme distortion of emotions. When the emotional-driven plunge appears, it may often be when the market bottoms out in the short term." Analysis of summer scenery.

Looking forward to the new year, Zhang Xiaodong believes that the market will continue to wait for positive signals due to the recent downward trend of overseas interest rates, the restoration of global risk appetite, and the easing of domestic policies and liquidity. But in the long run, the worst may be over. "Regarding whether the Shanghai Composite Index will fall below 2,900 points, we believe that investors should pay more attention to the imagination of industries and individual stocks under such valuation".

Regarding the question of where the "market bottom" is, Huang Huayan believes that it is expected that there will not be much room for the Shanghai stock index to fall in 2024, and the introduction of the financial stability guarantee fund as soon as possible will make the index fall and lack room for display.

Furong Fund believes that from the structural point of view, the economy is still in the stage of bottoming out, and it is difficult to make directional changes in the short term. At present, it is in the vacuum period of performance at the beginning of the year. From the perspective of stock selection, the flexibility and growth of performance in the next one to two years will be more important than the current static performance. It is suggested to be more optimistic about the sectors where the valuation end can be improved, such as the science and technology sectors that are less related to macroeconomics and are currently in the wave of AI innovation, and the power equipment industry chain with a clear valuation bottom.

Paipai Fortune said that this week is the first trading week in 2024, and the market failed to continue the rise at the end of last year and adjusted back again. The Shanghai Composite Index is relatively resilient, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index have returned to the bottom of last week. In the short term, it is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will return to the bottom of last week next week to test the previous bottom support. At present, the market is once again at a low level. As the negative impact of institutional position adjustment clears, a new round of market will gradually brew, waiting for the market sentiment to return.

Reporter: Lu Yiwen Editor: Chen Xi

Editor in charge: Bi Dandan