International observation： where does Israeli politics go？
Livni, Israeli Foreign Minister and Chairman of Kadima Party, greeted the supporters at a celebration rally in Tel Aviv (photo taken on February 11th). Xinhua News Agency reporter Yin Bogu photo
The counting of votes for the 18th Knesset election in Israel has been completed, and it will enter the process of forming a cabinet after the official results are announced on the 18th. Although the centrist Kadima Party won the election, it is still unknown which party will take the lead in forming the new government, and which party will form the new ruling Coalition. Analysts pointed out that this election has clearly revealed the trend of "turning right" in Israeli society. In this context, where will the new government go in the future? What are the prospects for the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and the Middle East peace process? This issue has attracted much attention from the international community.
Voters lean to the right.
The biggest feature of this election is that voters are obviously right-leaning, which can be clearly seen from the election results. First of all, among the 12 political parties that entered the parliament, the right-wing party won a total of 65 seats, while the left-wing party only had 55 seats. In the 2006 election, the right-wing party won only 50 seats.
Secondly, although Kadima Party overwhelmed Likud Group, an old right-wing party with a high voice before the election, experts believe that Likud did not lose to Kadima Party, but to a more right-wing party in a sense, "Israel is our home". The large-scale military action launched by the Kadima Party-led government against the Gaza at the end of last year not only failed to gain more support for itself, but also turned a large number of right-wing voters to the right, leading to the diversion of Likud’s votes to "Israel is our home".
Finally, the two political parties, "Israel is our homeland" and Shas Party, won a total of 26 seats, and now they have become pivotal forces in the parliament. In contrast, the old left-wing parties, Labour Party and Meret Party, won a total of 16 seats this time, 8 fewer than in the 2006 election.
At the same time, the political ideas of voters tend to the right. According to a survey of 1,700 voters published by Jerusalem Post on the 11th, 30% of them call themselves right-wing, 13% call themselves center-right, 23% to 24% call themselves centrists, 13% are center-left, and only 6% call themselves left-wing voters.
On February 11th, Netanyahu (left), chairman of the Likud Party in Israel, spoke at a rally in Tel Aviv. The preliminary vote counting results announced by Israel’s Central Election Commission on the same day showed that the centrist Kadima Party won the most votes in the parliamentary elections, but the lead was very small, and the final result was still uncertain. Xinhua news agency
There are many variables in forming a cabinet
According to Israeli law, after the election results are announced, the President will authorize a member who is most likely to form a cabinet to set up a new government. Usually, this task will be given to the leader of the largest party in parliament first. If the member fails to form a cabinet within 42 days, the President may appoint at most two members to continue to try to form a cabinet within 28 days and 14 days respectively. If they fail, Israel will hold a new general election.
Since no political party monopolizes the majority of seats in parliament in this election, members authorized to form a cabinet must consider forming a ruling alliance with other political parties. The media generally believe that in view of the fact that the right-wing camp occupies a majority of seats in the parliament, the situation of forming a cabinet is more favorable to Likud Chairman Netanyahu. Although the Kadima Party led by Foreign Minister Livni is the largest party in the parliament, the prospect of her success in forming a cabinet is not optimistic, and even whether she can get the priority to form a cabinet is doubtful. Therefore, who can form a cabinet successfully between Livni and Netanyahu is the biggest suspense at present.
Rubin, an expert on political issues at Israel Multidisciplinary Research Center, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency a few days ago that there are three basic ways to form a coalition government: first, Likud joins forces with Kadima Party and Labor Party; second, Likud forms a cabinet with other right-wing parties; and third, Livni joins forces with "Israel is our home" and other center-left parties to govern together.
Analysts believe that it is more likely that Likud and Kadima will join hands first and then find other parties to form a cabinet. Because these two major political parties have the greatest influence, their joint efforts are obviously the simplest way to form a cabinet, so as to avoid a protracted cabinet dispute in the political arena, which will undoubtedly lead to the stagnation of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and the Middle East peace process.
On February 10th, Israeli Defense Minister and Labor Party Chairman Barak voted at a polling station in Tel Aviv. Xinhua news agency
Palestinian-Israeli peace talks are not optimistic
According to Israel’s Ha ‘aretz report, although the Obama administration publicly said that how to change the political arena is an internal matter, it has privately expressed the hope that a new government based on the joint efforts of Likud Group and Kadima Party will emerge, instead of a right-wing government headed by Likud Group, because the latter is likely to freeze the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.
According to media reports, Livni has invited Netanyahu to join his own cabinet as prime minister, and even suggested that he can take turns to govern. Although Netanyahu rejected this proposal, he also invited Kadima Party to join his cabinet, and promised to hand over such important positions as defense minister, foreign minister or finance minister to Kadima Party leaders. This way of forming a cabinet has been supported by the United States and the European Union.
Many experts believe that there is no essential difference between Likud and Kadima in their positions on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Netanyahu publicly stated before the election that he would never start negotiations with Palestine on the core issues of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, such as the status of Jerusalem. Although the Kadima Party stated that it could negotiate, during its administration in the past few years, the government it led showed no willingness to make concessions on these issues at all. What’s more, the two political parties hold the same tough stance on expanding Jewish settlements, a new focus of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Analysts pointed out that under the background of the Israeli people’s "turning right", political parties may have to cater to this trend for their own political interests. Therefore, no matter who forms a cabinet or which party is in power, Israel will not make more achievements in the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and the Middle East peace process.
Who is the next Israeli government?
On the first day after the end of the Israeli parliamentary election, there was a strange result. The Kadima party Livni and Likud party Netanyahu both declared victory. Who will form a cabinet? It will take days or even weeks for the answer to be revealed. This is an Israeli-style election.
The preliminary vote count released by Israel’s Central Election Commission on the 11th showed that Kadima Party won 28 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, ranking first with one seat ahead of Likud Group. Although the votes of some active servicemen are still being counted and one seat is still undecided, the general balance of seats won by the Pai Kadima Party and the Likud Group will not change. Since both sides are less than half of the individual cabinets, it is a foregone conclusion to form a joint cabinet. > > > click details.
The whole story of Israel’s political crisis
Israel is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on the 10th. The fuse of this early election was that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced his resignation last September. The following is the beginning and end of the Israeli political crisis since Olmert took office.
On January 4th, 2006, then Prime Minister ariel sharon was admitted to hospital after a sudden cerebral hemorrhage, and then Deputy Prime Minister Olmert succeeded Sharon as the 12th Israeli Prime Minister. > > > click details.
Background information: Israel’s electoral system
Israel is a parliamentary country, and there is no constitution. There are only basic laws such as parliamentary law, presidential law and government law. The Knesset is the highest authority in Israel and has legislative power. It is responsible for formulating and amending national laws, voting on political issues, approving the appointment of cabinet members, supervising government work, and electing presidents and speakers. Parliament has the right to dismiss the president, or it can announce its dissolution and hold new elections in advance. > > > click details.
Background information: Israel Kadima Party
In November 2005, Sharon, then Prime Minister of Israel, founded Kadima Party. In order to distinguish it from the right-wing Likud Party and the left-wing Labor Party, Kadima Party pursues the middle line of giving consideration to social justice on the basis of free economic policy, hoping to lead Israel to a new road. > > > click details.
Background information: Likud Group of Israel
Likud Group is an Israeli right-wing political party, which was established in September 1973. It is mainly composed of the free parties such as the Gahar Group, the Freedom Center and the People’s Party, so it is also known as the "National Freedom Alliance". In 1977, the Likud Group won the Knesset election for the first time and was authorized to form a cabinet, breaking the situation that the Labour Party had been in power for 29 years. Since then, Likud has been in power alone or jointly with other parties. > > > click details.
Editor: Wang Chao