Price fluctuation reveals the difficulty of regulation. Who decides the price of edible oil？
The fluctuation of edible oil price reveals the difficulty of regulation
The terminal price of soybean oil in China is directly determined by the spot and futures prices of soybeans in the United States.
The futures price is soaring and the current price is rising … The edible oil market has become the "protagonist" of everyone’s attention under the action of many factors. (data picture)
On April 5th, with the approval of the National Development and Reform Commission, the edible oil of Arowana started to raise prices in some cities, and the prices of pure sunflower oil of Arowana brand from different producing areas increased by 17.7% and 16.5% respectively. However, according to Xinhua News Agency’s national monitoring of agricultural and sideline products and agricultural prices, this move did not shake the overall situation of edible oil prices. The price of edible oil in the whole country is stable, and the price of edible vegetable oil in 97% cities and prefectures is the same as that of the previous day. The number of cities with falling prices is greater than that with rising prices. Among them, the prices of soybean blended oil in Hegang, Heilongjiang and Guilin, Guangxi dropped significantly, by 20% and 18.3% respectively.
Soybean oil is out of stock at reduced price.
The price reduction of soybean edible oil not only occurred in Heilongjiang and Guangxi, but also began to adjust the price of edible vegetable oil in Beijing on March 8. Our reporter saw in the Xinfadi market in Beijing at the end of March that the doors of grain and oil wholesalers were covered with large-character advertisements for the price reduction of edible oil.
Yin Meijuan, a wholesaler of grain and oil in Xinfadi and the owner of Beijing Yongchao Grain and Oil Business Department, told "? Looking at the reporter of Oriental Weekly, at the beginning of March, the wholesale price of soybean oil with 5L arowana was as high as 79 yuan per barrel, and it dropped to 62.5 yuan per barrel at the end of March.
"How much do you want? You can get a discount if you buy more. " Yin Meijuan took out her calculator and calculated: the wholesale price of edible oil has fallen to the level of January 2008. Among them, the average price of soybean oil dropped by 17%.
What determines all this is the price offered by the manufacturer to Yin Meijuan. An order she showed our reporter showed that from the beginning of March to the end of March, the wholesale price of first-class soybean oil in Beijing market had dropped from 16,000 yuan per ton to 13,000 yuan, a decrease of 18.75%; Rapeseed oil dropped from 17,000 yuan per ton to 15,000 yuan, a decrease of 11.76%; Palm oil (24 degrees) dropped from 14,000 yuan per ton to 11,600 yuan, a decrease of 17.14%.
In Auchan Supermarket Fengtai Bridge South Store in Beijing, our reporter found that the first-class soybean oil of 5L Arowana, which was once sold for more than 80 yuan, is now only sold for 63.5 yuan a barrel, and the retail price of 5L Arowana soybean oil is only 62.9 yuan a barrel.
However, in some big supermarkets, our reporter was surprised to find that soybean oil was "out of stock". In Wal-Mart Supermarket in wanda plaza, Beijing CBD and Yihai Garden Store of China Resources Supermarket, supermarket guides told reporters: "Soybean oil is out of stock. I suggest you buy blended oil, peanut oil, corn germ oil and sunflower oil. "
The silent subsidy of the state reserve oil
Pan Wenfu, the general manager of Shanghai Senpan Enterprise Management Consulting Co., Ltd., has been engaged in the marketing of grain and oil brands such as "Lu Hua" and "Arowana" for many years. He told this reporter that "out of stock" is a nice term, but in fact it is "out of stock".
Why do small wholesalers have soybean oil in their hands, but big customers like supermarkets have broken their goods? Pan Wenfu’s point of view is that on the one hand, the price of soybean raw materials keeps rising, on the other hand, the state regulates the price of edible oil, and manufacturers are reluctant to produce soybean oil in large quantities.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first ten days of January 2008, the price of soybean oil in 36 large and medium-sized cities nationwide has increased by 58% compared with the same period in 2007. This is a trend that the government is very unwilling to see. In order to stabilize the market price, before the Spring Festival, the National Development and Reform Commission adopted a temporary price limit measure for soybean oil, which reduced the profits of large oil plants, and some even operated at breakeven. In order to survive, enterprises have to suspend the production of soybean oil and turn to produce corn oil, olive oil, rapeseed oil, peanut oil and other oil products with higher unit price.
In order to make up for the loss of edible oil enterprises not raising prices and solve the problem of "out of stock" of soybean oil, the relevant macro-control departments secretly subsidized some key enterprises. Zheng shenglei, special assistant to the general manager and sales director of Jilin zhengwang grease co., ltd., told "? Wang Dongfang Weekly revealed that "the state has given COFCO, Yihai Kerry and Jiusan Oil a batch of national reserve oil at a very low price."
"The country has done a very clever job this time, knowing what enterprises and what categories to catch." Zheng Shenglei analyzed, "Now the edible oil market has formed an oligopoly pattern. As long as the state keeps the prices of Yihai Kerry, COFCO and Jiusan oils down, the enterprises behind will have to follow suit if they lose money."
"In China, the proportion of soybean oil in edible oil consumption is about 60% ~ 70%. As long as the price of soybean oil goes down, the prices of other oil products will inevitably fall."
As for the specific subsidy amount of the state to the Big Three, "the control measures are not transparent, and the state does not want other enterprises to know." Zheng Shenglei did not know the details.
Wang Ziyuan, manager of Green Futures Finance Division, told? Looking at Oriental Weekly, the national oil storage price is 9700 yuan/ton, which is nearly 40% lower than the wholesale price of soybean oil market of 16000 yuan/ton in early March.
The three major grain and oil giants that get subsidies are also very low-key. Regarding the state subsidies that our reporter is most concerned about, Xiao Tuchi, the public affairs department of Yihai Kerry Company, "suggested to know through relevant government departments", and Jiusan Oil also refused to disclose this information.
Zhang Fan, the public relations manager of the marketing department of COFCO Food Marketing Co., Ltd., responded positively to the state subsidy. Zhang Fan revealed to this magazine that "the state gave COFCO 100,000 tons of reserve oil".
Who decides the price of edible oil?
Under a series of control measures, soybean oil returned to major supermarkets in Beijing after the end of March, and soybean oil in Xinfadi wholesale market also began to drop sharply. However, the industry’s judgment on the future trend of edible oil prices is still rising.
According to Pan Wenfu, the soybean oil brands sold in China, whether Arowana produced by Yihai Kerry or Fulinmen produced by COFCO, "don’t grow beans". At least 40 million tons of soybeans needed by China’s grain and oil market are imported, accounting for more than 70% of the total domestic demand.
"China is the world’s largest soybean importer and the United States is the world’s largest soybean exporter." The main soybean producing area in China is in the northeast. Compared with American soybeans, the price of soybeans in the northeast is always uncompetitive. "After WTO, soybeans in the northeast will not be sold.".
Therefore, the terminal price of soybean oil in China is directly determined by the spot and futures prices of soybeans in the United States, but has little correlation with domestic soybean prices.
At the end of March, USDA predicted that the global soybean output in 2007/2008 was 220 million tons, which was 6.5% lower than the previous year, but the soybean consumption would reach 235 million tons, the global soybean supply was tightening, and the soybean price in the international market would continue to rise.
Pan Wenfu analyzed that the China government had expected a bumper harvest of rapeseed in the south and used rapeseed oil to replace the market demand of soybean oil. The snowstorm in the south caused serious damage to rapeseed, and rapeseed oil production was expected to decrease by about 40%, further expanding the contradiction between supply and demand, and the international soybean price immediately rose. Under the combined effect of various factors, compared with the same period last year, the international soybean price has increased by 20%.
Zheng Shenglei agreed with Pan Wenfu’s analysis. He added that there are "two heroes" contributing to the soaring international soybean prices: first, international capital withdrawn from the stock market and the property market participated in soybean futures speculation; Second, "hoarding by dealers has contributed to the speed and extent of soybean price growth".
The difficulty of regulation is not what it used to be.
Wang Ziyuan of Green Futures believes that the price of edible oil in China is deeply influenced by the American soybean market, and the price of edible oil is mainly influenced by the international futures market. Not long ago, the Carlyle Fund in the United States was affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, and the capital chain was broken, which caused the futures exchange to "forcibly stop Carlyle’s commodity orders of more than 20 billion US dollars, of which 5 billion US dollars involved agricultural products". On the other hand, the next year’s agricultural development planning report released by the US Department of Agriculture at the end of March indicated that the soybean planting area will increase by more than 10 million mu in 2008. Two major factors have led to "several consecutive down limits in the outer disk of the soybean futures market, and the inner disk has also fallen accordingly".
This fluctuation also caused the price of soybean oil in the domestic market to temporarily dive, but it is too optimistic to judge that the price of edible oil has stabilized since then.
A number of people in the industry revealed to this magazine that due to the rising cost pressure, most edible oil production enterprises applied to relevant departments to adjust the ex-factory price. It is estimated that in April, except peanut oil, the prices of other edible oils will rise again.
On April 1st, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on its official website that it had approved the application for price increase of arowana edible oil. The price of the brand’s 5L blended oil can increase by 20 yuan, and the price of corn oil can increase by about 10 yuan.
Xiao Tuchi, the public affairs department of Yihai Kerry, said: "From 2007 to the beginning of 2008, affected by various factors such as international economy, agriculture, natural conditions and politics, the international edible oil market has been going all the way up, and prices have risen, supply is tight and prices are upside down. Recently, the international crude oil price has fluctuated repeatedly, and the global edible oil market is full of variables, which makes it difficult for enterprises to accurately and comprehensively grasp the market conditions and changes. We are carefully observing the market conditions and making further judgments and countermeasures on the basis of following national policies and market price laws. "
Zhang Fan, public relations manager of COFCO Marketing Department, told "? Looking at the reporter of Oriental Weekly, the 100,000 tons of state-owned grain reserves have been used up. At the same time, the pressure of high raw material prices has hit again. COFCO has submitted an application for price increase to the National Development and Reform Commission, but it has not yet received a reply. She said that COFCO would "adjust the price according to market conditions".
Pan Wenfu analyzed, "Soybean, the main raw material of edible oil, is already a global supply and demand system. In the era of global economic integration, the macro-control role of a country is declining sharply. If the domestic market cannot form a relatively complete industrial chain, in the face of the rising flood of global commodities, some control measures are likely to be just a drop in the bucket. " (Reporter Xiao Qiang/Beijing Report)
Editor: Feng Ye